The Aviation Industry: Annual Data
Part 1 [using correlation and regression]
The data file shown in Appendix 1 gives the figures for aviation in the UK from 1980 to 2010
Air Transport movements: the number of aircraft take-offs and landings [ measured in thousands]
Terminal Passengers: the number of passengers arriving and departing UK airports [measured in thousands]
The data can be found in the excel file on weblearn labeled as cwk2 Jan 2012 aviation in the UK, page labelled traffic by year.
Using the data set described above:
1) Draw a graph of the number of air transport movements over time.
2) Draw a graph of the number of terminal passengers over time
3) Derive the value of the correlation coefficient between air transport movements and terminal passengers.
4) Derive a scattergraph to show the relationship between the two variables; terminal passengers and air transport movements.
5) Determine the coefficient of determination and the regression equation linking air transport movements and terminal passengers
6) Use your regression equation to predict the number of passengers expected when the number of air traffic movements number 2 million a year and 3 million a year.
7) Identify any outliers.
[ marks for this section :17% ; graphs 10%, r , r2 , regression equation, predictions, outliers 7%]
Write a report of between 500 and 700 words that includes:
A brief description of the meaning of the data and the data sources.
A description of the main movements over time of air transport movements and terminal passengers
A description on the scattergraph linking air traffic movements and terminal passengers
An interpretation of the value of the correlation coefficient and the coefficient of determination between air transport movements and terminal passengers, in the context of the data.
The equation of the regression line produced in the context of the meaning of the data.
An interpretation of the coefficients of the regression equation in the context of the meaning of the data variables.
Report on the predictions made. Comment on the acceptability of using the regression equation to make these predictions.
Comment on the outliers found (if any)
[marks for this section: 33%; descriptions 11%, interpretations of r, r2, regression coefficients, 15%, quoting predictions and outliers, 7%]
Total for part 1 = 50%
Part 2 Aviation Industry: Quarterly Data
[Using time series analysis]
The data can be found in the excel file on weblearn labeled as cwk2 Jan 2012 aviation in the UK, page labelled passengers by quarter.
Use the data on terminal passengers and the excel spreadsheet package to produce:
A graph of the time series labelled by year and quarter.
The centred moving averages and seasonal variations.
An analysis of any trend shown by the series, using regression techniques and the centred moving averages
Find the average annual increase over the period in question.
An analysis of the average seasonal variations.
Predictions for the next 4 quarters
A new graph showing the original data together with the predictions.
[marks for this section:24%; graphs 9%, correct cma, seasonals, trend predictions, 15% ]
Write a report of about 500 words to include:
The source of the data and an explanation of what is being measured (including the units of measurement).
A discussion of the main movements over time in terms of the general trend and the seasonal variations.
A discussion of the average annual increase and the average seasonal variations
The values of your predictions and comments on the accuracy of the predictions
[marks for this section: 26%; description of data, movements over time, 7%, annual increase and seasonal variations,8%, predictions and accuracy 11%]
Total for part 2: 50%
Your coursework must be submitted on paper; you are advised to keep a back-up copy of all work.
The submitted coursework should include:
A front page giving your student ID number and the name of your seminar tutor. This information should also be included on the University cover sheet. Do not include your name.
A contents page for the reports and appendices.
Reports written in business style English focused on describing and interpreting the results. (no references to “x” and “y”)
Correct spellings and grammar.
All graphs must be appropriately labelled so that they are self-explanatory.
Graphs should be included in the report where they help the reader appreciate the comments.
All figures quoted should be in the appropriate units of measurement.
You must explain exactly what is being measured by the data.
No “theory notes” taken from text books etc. should be included.
Tables should not be included in the report; these should be in the appendices.
An Appendix containing the spreadsheet output. ( note, this does not have to be edited for presentational purposes)
A spreadsheet showing the formulae used for part 2
For parts 1 and 2
Clear interpretation of all statistical analyses.
Accurate calculations where required.
Effective and appropriate use of the spreadsheet package.
A well-organised, well-written report that uses business style English with no spelling or grammatical errors.
You are strongly advised to proof-read your work and check any excel output with print preview to make sure it is laid out appropriately before submission.
WARNING: The work submitted must be your own work. The use of any other person’s work constitutes plagiarism and is an assessment offence. The University regards plagiarism as a serious academic offence and deals with it accordingly.
Year Air transport movements: aircraft landings and take-offs (thousands) Terminal passengers: arrivals and departures (thousands)
1980 954 57,823
1981 927 57,771
1982 973 58,778
1983 1,019 61,109
1984 1,079 67,572
1985 1,097 70,434
1986 1,125 75,161
1987 1,193 86,041
1988 1,280 93,162
1989 1,375 98,913
1990 1,420 102,418
1991 1,353 95,297
1992 1,432 105,663
1993 1,468 111,786
1994 1,469 121,659
1995 1,534 128,857
1996 1,611 135,226
1997 1,682 145,989
1998 1,785 158,163
1999 1,877 167,695
2000 1,962 179,187
2001 2,005 180,534
2002 1,998 188,043
2003 2,059 199,211
2004 2,176 214,926
2005 2,301 227,416
2006 2,344 234,416
2007 2,379 239,968
2008 2,327 235,361
2009 2,124 218,126
2010 2,002 210,656
Source Traffic at UK airports: annual, 1950 onwards
Publisher: Department for Transport
Published date: 27 October 2011
number of passengers
2007 Q1 44,864,737
2008 Q1 46,158,377
2009 Q1 40,380,329
2010 Q1 39,522,418
2011 Q1 39,675,778
Air passenger transport by reporting country [avia_paoc]
Last update: 25-10-2011
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